Worldwide air cargo tonnages have bounced back faster and more strongly this year in the initial weeks since the annual Lunar New Year holiday downturn, albeit to significantly lower tonnage and pricing levels than those of early 2022, the latest preliminary figures from WorldACD Market Data indicate.

Figures for week 6 (6 to 12 February) show a small decrease (-2%) in worldwide tonnages compared with the previous week – which had seen a strong (+14%) rebound that took tonnages back to their pre-Lunar New Year levels. In the two-week period following the annual Lunar New Year holiday week, the recovery has been stronger and faster this year (+12%) than last year (+5%), with this year’s bounceback taking place within a week of the Lunar New Year holiday week ending.

On the pricing side, global average rates recovered slightly (+1%) in the two-week period, whereas last year a slight decrease was observed. But prices remain well below their level prior to Lunar New Year (-7%), similar to last year’s trend.

Comparing weeks 5 and 6 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), tonnages are up significantly (+6%) above their combined total in weeks 3 and 4, accompanied by a +2% increase in capacity, whereas average worldwide rates fell by -4% – based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

At a regional level, on a 2Wo2W basis, the post-Lunar New Year recovery in air cargo tonnages was most notable on intra-Asia Pacific (+41%) flows and inbound Asia Pacific traffic from Middle East & South Asia (+33%), North America (+25%) and Europe (+22%), respectively. The most-notable decreases were recorded from Central & South America to North America (-11%) – dropping back after the strong increase reported last week (+37%) on that lane – and from Asia Pacific to Middle East & South Asia

(-10%), a lane that had already recorded a strong decrease the previous week (-38%).

Year-on-Year Perspective

Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 5 and 6 was down -16% compared with the equivalent period last year. Most notably, tonnages ex-Asia Pacific are down by -21%, although this comparison is skewed because Lunar New Year started ten days later last year, on 1 February compared with 22 January this year. There were also double-digit percent year-on-year drops in tonnages outbound from North America (-24%), Middle East & South Asia (-13%) and Europe

(-12%).

Overall capacity has jumped by +15% compared with the previous year, with positive developments from all regions including Asia Pacific related to post Lunar New Year recovery. The most-notable increases were ex-Europe (+22%), ex-Africa (+19%) and ex-Middle East and South Asia (+16%).

Worldwide rates are currently -28% below their levels this time last year, at an average of US$2.79 per kilo in week 6, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels.