European gas prices opened higher this week following the trade deal between the US and the European Union (EU), which established a 15% tariff on most EU imports – excluding the existing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as several other sectors.
As part of the agreement, the EU pledged up to $750 billion in purchases of US energy products over three years – mainly LNG, oil and nuclear technology – a figure widely viewed as unrealistic.
The price rally also reflected geopolitical tensions, after US President Donald Trump brought forward a deadline for a Ukraine ceasefire and threatened new sanctions on Russian energy exports.

In Asia, prices edged higher, but US-origin cargoes remain uneconomical for Asia delivery, keeping Europe the preferred outlet.
A massive earthquake in eastern Russia and Japan has not disrupted Japanese power operations, though Rystad Energy continues to monitor for impacts.
Speculation also continues to build around a possible restart of construction at Mozambique LNG (Area 1) this year, with output likely to head to Asia.
US gas market fundamentals remained weak as the Henry Hub marker fell 2.5% week on week to $3.16 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on 29 July.
Unplanned outages at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi are expected to add further downward pressure.
Venture Global made headlines with a final investment decision (FID) and financial close on Phase 1 of its CP2 LNG projects, securing $15.1 billion in financing.
Just a week earlier, Eni signed a 20-year offtake agreement with Venture Global for 2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), highlighting international appetite for US supply.

Europe

European gas prices rose at the start of the week, with TTF climbing from $11.1 per MMBtu on its 25 July close to $11.3 per MMBtu on 28 July and further to $11.7 per MMBtu a day later.
The 4% week-on-week increase coincided with the announcement of a US-EU trade deal that capped tariffs at 15% and a headline EU commitment to spend $750 billion on American energy products over three years – mainly LNG, oil and nuclear technology.
The rally also came amid heightened geopolitical tensions, after Trump brought forward a deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening further sanctions on Russian energy exports.
The upward price movement in the first half of this week stands in contrast to the recent trend of a softening market and appears largely sentiment driven.

The $750 billion target has drawn widespread skepticism.
In 2024, the EU imported 37.82million tonnes (Mt) of US LNG, equivalent to a 43% share in the EU’s LNG imports.
So far in 2025, the US share of EU LNG imports has risen to 55.5%, equivalent to 35.6 Mt.
If this exceptionally high share is sustained and the EU imports a total ranging from 100 Mt to 120 Mt this year, it would translate to approximately $28 to $34 billion in US LNG sales, assuming an average price of $11 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
With global LNG supply expected to grow, prices are widely forecast to decline.
This means the EU would need to import significantly higher volumes just to maintain current spending levels – let alone hit $250 billion annually.
Other American energy commodities such as crude oil and petroleum products – which made up 16% of the EU’s petroleum imports in 2024 – face similar practical limits, with refinery capacity and product specifications constraining the potential for significant import ramp-up, while coal and nuclear fuels represent much smaller share of energy imports into the EU.

Despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the European gas market remains fundamentally well-supplied.
As of 29 July, EU storage reached 67.63%, marking a 3% week-on-week increase.
Although still 20% below last year’s level, inventories remain broadly on track to meet winter targets.
The inventories of key gas-consuming countries Germany and the Netherlands lag slightly, at around 59.88% and 56.98%.
Norwegian pipeline flows to Europe remain strong, hitting 338.3 million cubic meters per day (MMcmd) on 30 July.
Still, Equinor has again delayed the restart of Hammerfest LNG, now targeting 3 August after two previous postponements.
The facility has been offline since 22 April for annual maintenance, initially expected to resume on 19 July, which was pushed to 29 July.

In Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s Naftogaz signed a supply agreement with Azerbajian’s SOCAR on 24 July.
Deliveries of Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine via the Trans-Balkan pipeline (through Bulgaria and Romania) fully bypass Russian territory.
Though volumes are small, the move is symbolically significant following the expiry of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal in January 2025.

In Egypt, this month saw the start-up of the Energos Eskimo and Energos Power FSRUs, each with 5.8 Mtpa, which received their first cargoes on 15 and 19 July, respectively.
Two additional units – Energos Winter (3.5 Mtpa) and Energos Force (5.8 Mtpa) – are expected online in August.
The Energos Force will be positioned in Jordan’s Aqaba port, with regasified LNG sent to Egypt via the 3 billion cubic meters (Bcm) Arab Gas Pipeline.
This will bring Egypt’s monthly import capacity to a maximum of 1.73 Mtpa by the end of summer.
The ramp-up is intended to hedge against domestic output shortfalls, weather-driven demand spikes, and potential interruptions in pipeline flows from Israel amid ongoing tensions.

Asia

The September delivery contract for East Asia LNG settled at $12.07 per MMBtu on 29 July, up 0.75% from $11.98 per MMBtu the previous week.
The more liquid October contract rose 1.84% over the same period, settling at $12.17 per MMBtu.
Although US-sourced LNG briefly became viable for delivery to Asia on 28 July, it has since returned to being uneconomical once full shipping costs are included.
As of 29 July, Europe remains the more commercially attractive destination for US cargoes.

Consequently, recent unplanned outages at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi are unlikely to impact Asian spot prices for September delivery.

An earthquake in eastern Russia and Japan has not disrupted power plant operations in Japan, though Rystad Energy continues to monitor potential impacts on infrastructure and market fundamentals.
LNG inventories held by Japan’s major power utilities fell by 6.8% week on week to 1.79 million tonnes as of 27 July – 7.7% lower than the same period last year and 16.7% below the five-year average.
Still, increased nuclear availability is expected to offset some of the pressure on LNG demand: Japan had 13% more nuclear capacity available in July and is forecast to have 5.4% more in August, according to Rystad Energy estimates.
Gas-fired generation remains less competitive than coal, though it continues to be used selectively during regional peak demand hours.

In the spot market, Kansai Electric is offering a cargo for September delivery, with bids due by 31 July.
The UAE’s Adgas is reportedly experiencing slower loadings and has begun notifying offtakers of likely delays.
There has been renewed momentum around TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG (Area 1) project in recent months, with growing speculation that construction could resume by the end of summer.
The project’s output is widely expected to be directed toward Asia, given the composition of its financiers and prospective offtakers.
The project has been under force-majeure since 2021, following Islamic State-linked insurgent attacks in the Cabo Delgado province. While TotalEnergies had initially signaled a mid-2024 restart, operations remain suspended.
Still, several developments suggest progress: earlier this year, the project secured a $4.7 billion loan reapproval from the US EXIM Bank – its largest deal to date – as well as fresh financing from India’s ONGC Videsh, which approved nearly INR 15 billion ($175.8 million) in new investment.
The project continues to attract interest from a range of geopolitical actors, with the Mozambican government recently inviting Russian oil and gas companies to participate in developing its resources.

Rystad Energy estimates the project to start up by 2029.
Underpinned by one of Africa’s largest untapped gas reserves, the project continues to represent Mozambique’s long-term potential in the global LNG market.
That said, it remains unclear how any restart will avoid the same structural risks that triggered the original suspension.
President Daniel Chapo recently acknowledged Cabo Delgado still faces ‘the small problem of jihad, terrorism’, noting that while the security situation has improved, it is still far from resolved.

US

US natural gas fundamentals started the week on a soft note, reinforcing a broadly bearish market outlook. Henry Hub prices slipped to $3.16 per MMBtu on 29 July – down 2.5% from $3.24 the previous week.
Unplanned outages at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi are likely to add downward pressure, alongside storage dynamics remaining relatively comfortable.
Net injections for the week ending 18 July totaled 23 billion cubic feet (Bcf) – below the five-year average of 30 Bcf, but modestly above the 20 Bcf seen during the same period last year.
Working gas in storage reached 3,075 Bcf, placing inventories 6% above the five-year average, though still 5% below year-ago levels. Consumption trends reinforced the weak outlook.
In the week ending 23 July, total US natural gas demand fell by 2.1%, or 1.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) from the previous week.
Power sector consumption saw the sharpest drop – down 3.8% (1.7 Bcfd) – as cooler temperatures spread across northern and western regions of the country.

On projects, Venture Global made headlines with a final investment decision and financial close on Phase 1 of CP2 LNG, securing $15.1 billion in financing.
The full project is designed for 28 Mtpa of capacity.
Just one week earlier, Eni signed a 20-year offtake agreement with Venture Global for 2 Mtpa – adding to a string of recent long-term LNG deals that underscore ongoing international appetite for US supply.

LNG Canada also appears to have paused exports, indicating the facility is undergoing production issues even as it makes efforts to ramp up shipments.