U.S. crude output to fall 1 million bbls in 2016 from 2015 peak
NEW YORK - U.S. oil production is set to fall slightly farther than expected a month ago, the U.S. government said on Wednesday, in a sign the year-long slump in global prices is weighing more heavily and for longer than expected on the country’s shale boom.
2016 U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 400,000 barrels per day to 8.96 million bpd, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Last month, the energy agency also forecasted a decline of 400,000 bpd, but at an output of 9.32 million bpd.
While much of the decrease is likely a result of recently revised government forecasts showing downward supply revisions for the first five months of the year, data from the EIA’s short term energy outlook showed that U.S. oil production in 2016 will fall by nearly 1 million bpd from its 2015 highs.
U.S. production, which hit a peak in April at 9.61 million bpd, is set to fall to a low of 8.63 million bpd in August next year. That is a wider gap from last month’s forecast by 60,000 bpd.
A few months ago, the EIA said production was expected to begin declining from June through the early part of 2016 before resuming growth.
“Current low oil prices are making some U.S. oil production less profitable, with total estimated oil output during August alone down 140,000 barrels per day from the month before,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a statement.
Since last summer, a 60-percent cut in benchmark prices has forced producers to cut budgets and lay off thousands of staff. On Tuesday, Continental Resources cut its 2015 budget for at least the third time.
The EIA also lowered its 2015 growth forecast to 500,000 bpd of growth, from 650,000 bpd of growth previously.
The reduction in U.S. supply comes as the EIA revised down a revision to global and U.S. oil demand, leaving the outlook for next year little-changed from a month ago.
The 2016 U.S. oil demand growth forecast was lowered to 130,000 bpd from 190,000 bpd growth previously. The 2015 U.S. oil demand growth was set to rise by 330,000 bpd from 400,000 bpd previously.
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