Brent spiked to $116.50 at market open before rebounding to $104.50 on news of the G7 releasing barrels, however the gain represents an almost 45% increase since the start of the conflict.
This has materially altered our base case market assessment, which was published two weeks before the conflict began.

Under the pre-war scenario, we had expected Brent to average $60 per barrel in 2026, as the market faced a substantial surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd).

Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding both the duration and the geopolitical trajectory of the crisis, we have developed two alternative scenarios that we currently consider plausible as of 9 March:

  • Two-month war scenario: The conflict lasts roughly two months, with the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopening to oil flows by the end of March.
  • Four-month war scenario: The conflict extends to four months, with Hormuz reopening more gradually by the end of April.


Both scenarios rely on several underlying assumptions that may change rapidly as events evolve.

At present, the two-month scenario appears more likely, although the situation remains highly fluid.
More extreme scenarios cannot be ruled out right now.

Under the two-month scenario, Brent prices rise to above $110 per barrel in April before gradually declining as supply flows normalize, reaching $70 per barrel by year-end.
The resulting 2026 average price would be approximately $87 per barrel.

In the four-month war scenario, the longer disruption leads to a sharper price spike, with Brent reaching around $135 per barrel by May before easing to $85 per barrel by the end of the year as market balances begin to normalize.

The resulting 2026 average price would be approximately $100 per barrel.