Solar and wind to lead growth of U.S. power generation for the next two years

monthly U.S. electric power sector electricity generation

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2024

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast that wind and solar energy will lead to growth in U.S. power generation for the next two years. As a result of new solar projects coming online this year, we forecast that U.S. solar power generation will grow 75% from 163 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 to 286 billion kWh in 2025. We expect that wind power generation will grow 11% from 430 billion kWh in 2023 to 476 billion kWh in 2025.

In 2023, the U.S. electric power sector produced 4,017 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electric power. Renewable sources—wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal—accounted for 22% of generation, or 874 billion kWh, last year. Annual renewable power generation surpassed nuclear generation for the first time in 2021 and coal generation for the first time in 2022.

In contrast to the growing generation from renewables, we forecast that coal power generation will decline 18% from 665 billion kWh in 2023 to 548 billion kWh in 2025. We forecast natural gas will continue to be the largest source of U.S. electricity generation, with about 1,700 billion kWh of annual generation in 2024 and 2025, similar to last year. We expect nuclear power generation will stay relatively flat, rising from 776 billion kWh in 2023 to 797 billion kWh in 2025.

U.S. annual electric generating capacity

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2024