Oil’s surge has pushed crude above the break-even level for almost all the Middle East’s producers, raising the prospect of significant budget surpluses for even the weakest economies if prices remain high.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine lifted crude prices over $105 a barrel for the first time since 2014, extending gains earlier propelled by economies around the world reopening after coronavirus lockdowns.

The fighting in Europe means OPEC member states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are set for an even bigger windfall, and there’s a chance that even Bahrain, the region’s smallest economy, could record a balanced budget for the first time since 2008—if crude remains elevated. 

Brent jumped by more than 9% in the hours after President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces to strike Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund estimates prices at that level would ensure all the main oil producers in the Middle East, except Bahrain, record a budget surplus. 

Saudi Arabia, which needs oil at about $72 a barrel to balance the books, already said it expects to record a surplus this year. For the UAE, that figure is about $67 a barrel. Bahrain needs prices in excess of $106 a barrel.

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“$100 oil is a boon for the GCC, very few thought we’d get back to this level after the drop in 2014,” said Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics. “It would allow governments to spend more and build up their foreign-exchange reserves.”

—Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist. For more, read here

The price jump will “boost confidence, replenish balance sheets and support the economic recovery” of Gulf countries, said Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic research at investment bank EFG Hermes. 

Investors will also “find a safe-haven in the Gulf’s dollar pegs from growing risks to emerging currencies amid a complex environment of rising inflation and potential tightening by global central banks,” he said.

It’s a sharp turnaround after energy market turmoil and the pandemic combined to crater recoveries from the last oil-price rout. 

However, an increased focus on fiscal discipline after a period of relatively low oil prices means Gulf countries are unlikely to ramp up expenditure.

In Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, officials have pledged to use windfalls to prepare for the future. That’s part of efforts to diversify the economy as climate change drives the adoption of technology that doesn’t burn fossil fuels.