Fundamentals across the major hubs have remained mostly unchanged from previous weeks. Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices for the November delivery were again down from $11.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on 16 September, to $11.35 per MMBtu on 23 September.

A similar decrease was observed in Europe, where the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price for October also decreased from $11.29 per MMBtu on 17 September, a week ago, to $10.98 per MMBtu on 24 September.

Norwegian pipeline gas has started returning following a period of maintenance; however, as this resumption in supply has already been priced in, it is unlikely to move prices unless there is unplanned or extended maintenance.

Henry Hub prices for October decreased from $3.10 per MMBtu on 17 September to $2.88 per MMBtu on 24 September.

China’s Beihai LNG import terminal, on 22 September, received its sixth LNG cargo from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant, onboard the sanctioned 174,000-cubic-meter Arctic Mulan LNG carrier. The Arctic Mulan was the first vessel to transport an Arctic LNG 2 cargo into the Beihai LNG import terminal on 28 August and then returned to the Koryak FSU in Kamchatka to receive another ship-to-ship cargo on 8 September before returning to Beihai on 22 September.

The 174,000-cubic-meter Arctic Vostok (ex-East Energy), which was stationed south of Beihai, has turned around, going to the south of Hainan, likely to avoid Typhoon Ragasa as ports in South China are closed due to inclement weather.

The 138,000-cm Arctic Metagaz (ex-Everest Energy) LNG carrier continues its movement in waters east of Japan.

The 172,600-cubic-meter Christophe De Margerie carrier is reported to have docked at the 6.6 million tonnes per annum (tpa) Arctic LNG 2 Train 2 on 22 September, the first loading from Train 2, while previous cargoes have so far come from Train 1 exclusively.

The continued ramp-up of LNG volumes from Arctic LNG 2 is expected to put downward pressure on prices by adding more supply to the market.
However, exports remain limited by shipping capacity, as additional Arctic-class vessels will be needed to navigate thick winter ice once the season begins.

Asia
South China is expected to experience severe weather from Typhoon Ragasa, which is expected to lower temperatures and increase hydropower generation potential.
In addition, ports in the region are expected to be closed during this period, reducing the potential for LNG imports for a few days.

Asia spot LNG fundamentals have largely remained unchanged in the past few weeks, with Japan and South Korea experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has extended its forecast of a 70% or more chance of above-normal temperatures across most of Japan through 17 October.
In November, most of the country is expected to see a 40% chance of above-normal temperatures. By December, it will transition to a 40% chance of below-normal temperatures.

There has been a revision in forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration.
The forecast in the previous week had at least a 40% probability of above mean temperatures through 26 October.
However, this has changed to a range of 40-50% probability of mean temperatures from 29 September to 12 October, meaning temperatures are likely to be lower than previously thought.
After that, temperatures have a minimum 40% probability of above mean temperatures until 26 October.

Japanese utility LNG inventory levels have increased to 1.88 million tonnes (Mt) as of 21 September, as compared to the revised 1.75 Mt reported on 14 September. This is still lower than the 2.18 Mt recorded on 24 August this year, and higher than the 1.63 Mt reported last year on 22 September. Japanese utility LNG for inventories in 2025 has generally aligned with 2024 inventory levels across most months. Spot activity from Japanese utilities has remained tepid so far, suggesting that power demand has been met through medium-term planning and optimization of other generation sources, such as cheaper coal-fired generation.

Europe
European underground storage inventories were at 82.10% or 93.22 billion cubic meters (bcm) on 22 September, higher than the 80.5% or 92.45 bcm on 15 September.
As with previous years, member states of the European Union (EU) are required to have their gas storage facilities at 90% full before winter.
This can now be achieved anytime between 1 October and 1 December, instead of the 1 November target from previous years.
In addition, there are also other caveats that EU members may deviate by up to 10% from the 90% target if there are ‘unfavorable market conditions’.

Norwegian pipeline flows have increased to 284.7 million cubic meters per day (MMcmd) as of 23 September, up from the 230.6 MMcmd reported on 16 September.
Pipeline flows in the country held at about 230 MMcmd during the maintenance period this year.
This is higher than during the previous year, when pipeline flows stayed below 200 MMcmd throughout most of the maintenance season.
Maintenance is expected to unwind in the coming weeks and is already increasing flows, as observed this week.
Any unplanned extension or maintenance will be net bullish but short-lived for TTF prices in the short term, as observed with the unplanned maintenance at the Troll, Oseberg, and Skarv fields on 22 September.

Russian pipeline flows through the Turkstream to Europe remained stable at 53.65 MMcmd on 22 September, as compared to the 55.06 MMcmd on 15 September.

After warmer-than-normal temperatures across Europe, the weather is expected to cool to normal temperatures and then reside slightly below normal across most of the region until the first week of October.
As autumn begins, lower-than-normal temperatures may translate to higher demand for gas towards heating, although this is not expected to last for long as temperature forecasts return above normal in the second week of October.

On 22 September, Egypt exported its first cargo since April 2025 onboard the 174,000-cubic-meter Minerva Amorgos, which is chartered by TotalEnergies.
The availability of an LNG cargo to export, along with multiple diverted deliveries that were meant for Egypt, may have stemmed from weaker downstream gas demand within the country than previously forecast.

US
Dry gas production for the week ending 17 September declined very slightly to 107.0 billion cubic feet (Bcf).
This is a slight decline compared to the 107.3 Bcf from the previous week ending 10 September, but remains steady in the high 100 bcf range.
The dry gas production is also markedly higher than the same period last year of 101.0 Bcf.
We continue to expect gas production levels to remain stable through the first quarter of 2026.

Feedgas supply to US liquefaction plants decreased to 15.35 Bcfd as of 23 September, lower than the 15.95 Bcfd reported a week ago on 15 September.
This decline may be attributed to maintenance at the Creole Trail pipeline, which is connected to Sabine Pass LNG and is expected to conclude on 25 September.
Higher utilization in the coming weeks from ramp-up activities at Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Expansion continues to be expected.

US underground storage levels were reported to be at 3.43 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) on 12 September, which is an increase from the 3.34 Tcf reported a week earlier on 5 September.
Storage levels continue to catch up with levels from the previous year, with just a 4 Bcf difference as compared to last year.

Port Arthur Phase 2 has reached a financial investment decision on the 13.5 million tpa facility.
The 18.1 million tpa Golden Pass export terminal has also received authorization from the US Department of Energy to receive, re-export, and cool-down LNG, which will be an indicator of receiving cool-down cargoes, which are typically used at the start of operations to cool down key equipment and pipelines.
This is typical for start-up and commissioning activities at new liquefaction sites.

Weather forecasts generally indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures across all regions in the US for the next two weeks.
This is except for the east region, where temperatures are expected to return to normal in the first few days of October, before turning warmer than normal for the rest of the week.