Russia is shipping crude through its ports at a rate close to the highest seen in more than four months.

About 3.48 million barrels a day of crude was shipped from Russian ports in the four weeks to Nov. 5, tracking data monitored by Bloomberg show, edging up from the period to Oct. 29. That’s despite a dip in the more volatile weekly figures.

Moscow said in early August that it would prolong export restrictions at 300,000 barrels a day below their May-June average level until the end of the year, a policy confirmed at the weekend. This reduction, though, includes both crude and refined products, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Interfax last month.

Crude flows have been cut by just one-third of that amount, leaving the rest to be achieved by lower exports of refined products.

Shipments remain elevated just weeks before the OPEC+ group of oil producers, jointly led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, meet in Vienna on Nov. 26 to set output targets for the first half of next year.

The more volatile weekly flow fell to 3.24 million barrels a day, down by about 400,000 barrels a day from the period to Oct. 29. The weekly decline reflected lower shipments from Russia’s western ports on the Black Sea and the Baltic, which were partly offset by an increase in the amount leaving export terminals on the Pacific coast. 

With most of last week’s shipments attracting the higher export duty rate for November, the drop in the Kremlin’s weekly revenues from oil export duties was muted. Meanwhile, the four-week average rose for a 14th straight week, setting a new high for the period since the start of January.

Moscow’s overall oil and gas revenue soared in October to the highest since April 2022 due to high oil prices and a pause in government subsidies to refiners. Levies on crude and petroleum products — which accounted for almost 91% of total hydrocarbon revenues last month — more than doubled. Oil revenue includes mineral extraction tax on gas condensate and export duty on petroleum products, as well as subsidies payments for refiners for domestic supplies of fuel, tax reimbursements and payments for refinery modernization.

Flows by Destination

Russia’s seaborne crude flows were little changed in the four weeks to Nov. 5 at 3.48 million barrels a day. That was down from 3.5 million barrels a day in the period to Oct. 22. Shipments remain about 105,000 barrels a day below the average seen during the surge in volumes between April and June.

All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and the Baltic port of Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap.

The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export grade. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.

  • Asia

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 2.93 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 5, down from 3.03 million barrels a day in the period to Oct. 29. That’s well below a peak of about 3.6 million barrels a day seen in May.

About 1.1 million barrels a day of crude was shipped to China in the four weeks to Nov. 5, but that figure may rise once the destinations become apparent for more than 21 million barrels of crude on tankers that have yet to signal their final port of call. Shipments to China are similar to the volume on ships heading to India, but China’s seaborne imports are supplemented by about 800,000 barrels a day of crude delivered directly from Russia by pipeline. 

Flows to India are rising, but remain well below peak levels seen earlier this year. The volume on vessels showing Indian ports as their destination averaged 1.12 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 5.

However, the equivalent of about 655,000 barrels a day was on vessels signaling Port Said or Suez in Egypt, or are expected to be transferred from one ship to another off the South Korean port of Yeosu. Those voyages typically end at ports in India or China and show up in the chart below as “Unknown Asia” until a final destination becomes apparent.

The “Other Unknown” volumes, running at about 103,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 5, are those on tankers showing no clear destination. Most of those cargoes originate from Russia’s western ports and go on to transit the Suez Canal, but some could end up in Turkey. Others could be moved from one vessel to another, with most such transfers now taking place in the Mediterranean, off the coast of Greece.

  • Europe and Turkey

Russia’s seaborne crude exports to European countries have collapsed since Moscow’s troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022. A market that consumed about 1.5 million barrels a day of short-haul seaborne crude, coming from export terminals in the Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic has been lost almost completely, to be replaced by long-haul destinations in Asia that are much more costly and time-consuming to serve.  These figures do not include shipments to Turkey.

No Russian crude was shipped to northern European countries, or those in the Mediterranean in the four weeks to Nov. 5.

Flows to Bulgaria, now Russia’s only European market for crude, recovered the previous week’s loss to average about 104,000 barrels a day in the most recent four-week period.

Exports to Turkey jumped to about 443,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 5. Flows exceeded the 425,000 barrels a day seen in October 2022. The recent increase comes after Lukoil resumed deliveries to the Azerbaijani-owned Star refinery at Aliaga. Supplies to the plant are expected at about 100,000 barrels a day, equivalent to half of the refinery’s capacity.

Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.

Export Revenue

Inflows to the Kremlin's war chest from its crude-export duty slipped to $79 million in the seven days to Nov. 5, while four-week average income edged higher to $80.6 million. The four-week average set a new high for the period since the start of January. The higher November duty rate helped to limit the drop in the Kremlin’s oil revenue in the week to Nov. 5.

The duty rate for November has been set at $3.57 a barrel, based on an average Urals price of $83.35 during the calculation period between Sept. 15 and Oct. 14. That was about $7.70 a barrel below Brent over the same period. November’s duty rate sets another new high for the year.

Origin-to-Location Flows

The following table shows the number of ships leaving each export terminal.

A total of 31 tankers loaded 22.7 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Nov. 5, vessel-tracking data and port agent reports show. That’s down by about 2.8 million barrels from the previous week.

The number of shipments fell from all three of Russia’s western ports, while flows from the Pacific were up by one cargo from the previous week.

Destinations are based on where vessels signal they are heading at the time of writing, and some will almost certainly change as voyages progress. All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade.

In addition, two cargoes of KEBCO were loaded at Novorossiysk and one from Ust-Luga during the week.