Russia met its target for crude-export cuts in January, complying with its pledge to allies in OPEC+, according to data from the country’s Energy Ministry. 

The nation’s daily crude exports last month were 42,000 tons lower than the May-June average, according to people familiar with the data. That’s equivalent to about 307,000 barrels a day, based on the usual 7.33 barrels-per-ton conversion ratio for Russian oil.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and it allies have been curbing their supplies for several months in order to prevent a surplus. The group deepened those cutbacks by an extra 900,000 barrels a day in the first quarter after rival producers, such as the US, showed rapid output growth. 

While most members agreed to cut production, Russia pledged to reduce its daily oil exports by 500,000 barrels, with 300,000 barrels coming from crude shipments and the rest from petroleum products. Last month, the country’s overseas crude shipments, both seaborne and by pipeline, averaged 626,000 tons a day, or some 4.59 million barrels a day, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the data is not public. 

Russia’s Energy Ministry declined comments on January oil-export levels. The country plans to meet its OPEC+ pledge in full this month, Tass reported on Tuesday, citing Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Bloomberg earlier assessed Russia’s seaborne exports in the four weeks to Jan. 28 at 3.09 million barrels a day, about 500,000 barrels a day below the May-June level. 

Estimating Russia’s compliance with its target for shipments of refined fuels is more challenging. Last month, the country’s oil-product flows dropped by 9,500 tons a day compared with the May-June baseline, reaching around 324,000 tons a day, according to the people. 

However, the data reflects a basket of different oil products each of which has a different conversion ratio from tons to barrels, making it difficult to determine the precise volume. 

While Russia’s data show the crude-export cuts were implemented in full, other countries including Iraq and Kazakhstan missed their targets, according to figures compiled by OPEC’s Secretariat in Vienna. Both countries have pledged full compliance in the coming months. 

The future of OPEC+ reductions beyond the first quarter will depend on the market situation, the alliance has said. Oil-watchers expect the group to extend the curbs in some form into the second quarter, further reducing the supply overhang.

In addition to its export cuts, Russia has promised to curb its crude production by 500,000 barrels a day until the end of this year. Energy Ministry data show January output was about 490,000 below the February 2023 baseline.