Three oil tankers will meet up shortly in the Arctic waters of the Kara Sea, signaling that the navigation season along Russia’s Northern Sea Route is open for business.

Two Aframax tankers, each hauling about 730,000 barrels of Urals crude from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, are heading east to Rizhao in China. A third similar-sized ship, sailing in ballast, is coming in the opposite direction, having started its latest voyage from the Chinese port of Yinkou, according to vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.

Tapping the Northern Sea Route can sharply reduce the journey time from Russia’s Baltic ports to refiners in northern China, making it likely that more Russian crude carriers will make such voyages in the coming months, probably assisted by ice breakers.

The empty vessel, the SCF Baltica, escorted by the nuclear-powered ice breaker Sibir, left southern China on June 27, heading for the Russian port of Kozmino on the country’s Pacific coast.

Rather than taking on a cargo of ESPO grade crude and heading back to China, like most tankers calling at the port, the SCF Baltica headed off northeast, passing between Sakhalin Island and Japan before skirting the Kamchatka Peninsula and entering the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait that separates Russia from Alaska.

Once in the Arctic seas, the tanker picked up its ice-breaking escort and headed west along Russia’s northern coast. After a 10-day journey from the Bering Strait, the ice breaker is set to rendezvous with the Primorsky Prospect and the NS Arctic about 170 miles east of the island of Novaya Zemlya and 250 miles north of the mouth of the Yenisei River.

The Primorsky Prospect has been idling there since Sunday evening, and the NS Arctic should arrive sometime on Tuesday morning. The Sibir will likely turn back east and escort the two fully-laden tankers through the icy waters to the Bering Strait. The SCF Baltica will continue its journey to Russia’s Arctic port of Murmansk, where it’s scheduled to arrive on Wednesday evening to take on its next cargo of Russian crude.

Icy Conditions

The tankers, all owned by Russia’s Sovcomflot PJSC, aren’t the most modern vessels it owns, their ages ranging from 13 to 18 years. But, unlike much of the shadow fleet of tankers that has emerged to carry Russian oil since the European Union, the US and the UK imposed sanctions in December 2022, all are rated to operate in icy conditions.

Using the Northern Sea Route can cut the journey time from Russia’s Baltic ports to refiners in northern China by as much as two weeks, or about 30%, compared with a voyage around Europe and through the Suez Canal and Strait of Malacca.

But vessels with an ice rating of Ice3 or below can only use the route between July and the end of November.

Without access to much of the world’s tanker fleet, which is barred from carrying Russian crude that was bought at prices above $60 a barrel, every day saved on deliveries of oil to Moscow’s only remaining large markets - China and India - is important.

It’s likely that more Russian crude will head across the top of the world in the coming months, probably in small convoys with ice-breaker assistance. But the volume may be limited by the availability of escort vessels.

Russia’s older nuclear-powered ice breakers are used to carry tourists to the North Pole, or to support oil terminals in the Kara Sea and on the Yamal Peninsula. The country currently has only three modern vessels to escort tankers through the Arctic. It looks like they’re going to be in high demand.