As Bakken goes west, Alaskan crude finds new home in Hawaii
The sharp increase in North Dakota Bakken crude flowing to West Coast refineries has forced rival Alaskan oil to find a new market in Hawaii this year, the latest sign the U.S. domestic energy boom is redrawing traditional energy routes.
The oil tanker Polar Resolution has made three 2,800-mile trips from Valdez oil terminal to Hawaii since late August, the most recent discharged less than two weeks ago, according to ThomsonReuters oil flows data via Eikon. For the past decade, Alaskan crude has flowed almost exclusively to the West Coast.
Growing competition from Bakken is expected to force Alaskan producers to find more new markets. At the same time, weakening West Coast demand for Alaskan crude is likely to hamper efforts to open more areas of the state to drilling, such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
The Hawaii shipments began in January this year with the first Alaskan cargoes since a lone shipment in May 2011, according to industry group ClipperData. Since January, more than 9.3 million barrels of Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude oil - or some 29,000 barrels per day (bpd) - has sailed to Par Petroleum’s 94,000 bpd Hawaii refinery in Honolulu, the data show.
Meanwhile, foreign shipments of crude to Hawaii from places such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are dropping.
In May, imports by the state dropped below 45,000 barrels per day (bpd), or less than half that of May 2012, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data analyzed by Reuters. Monthly imports have only been lower two times in the past three years. Alaskan shipments eased over the summer, as West Coast demand picked up, but resumed again in recent months.
“It used to be the case that the more ANS producers could churn out just got swallowed up by refineries in California and Washington state because it cost them more to buy crude from somewhere else,” said Sandy Fielden, an oil industry analyst with RBN Energy.
“But now they are getting quite a bit of competition so they are having to fish further afield,” Fielden said.
ANS crude, which is similarly light and sweet like Bakken, is being displaced as refiners ship a growing volume of North Dakota crude west on the rails. The premium for ANS over U.S. benchmark WTI <CL-ANSW> has fallen to a record low of less than 50 cents, down from more than $7 a barrel in the first half of the years, according to Reuters data going back to 2011.
Differentials may come under further pressure as more offloading facilities are built, potentially displacing even more ANS from its traditional buyers such as Valero’s Benicia, California refinery and Phillips 66’s Ferndale, Washington refinery.
Hydraulic fracturing in tandem with new drilling techniques has helped produce oil that was previously unobtainable, and the boom shows no sign of letting up.
GROWING DEMAND
Hawaii relies on oil for 71 percent of electricity generation, compared with a rate of less than 1 percent of power generated elsewhere in the United States.
Much of that energy is produced at the state’s largest refinery, Hawaii Independent Energy’s facility in Honolulu.
The company this year avoided buying ANS crude during most of the summer months, the data show. ANS “tends to have more seasonal pricing driven by lower production during the summer months on the North Slope and better gasoline margins on the West Coast during driving season,” Par Petroleum CEO Will Monteleone told analysts on a Nov. 12 call.
ANS will likely play a key role in helping to meet an expected 10,000 bpd rise in demand for the refinery’s refined fuels output in 2015, up 20 percent from this year, he said.
“The Alaska North Slope market continues to be a competitive alternative for us,” he said.
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