IBA reports that North America is currently the only global region on track to meet the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) cleaner-energy goal for 2030 - a 5% reduction in CO₂ emissions from international aviation via Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and other clean energies.

All other regions, including Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, are forecast to fall short of the 5% reduction in CO₂ emissions target unless significant additional SAF capacity is developed.

IBA calculated these figures by combining ICAO’s latest SAF production capacity data with IBA’s independent global fuel demand forecasts to determine whether each region is building sufficient supply to remain aligned with a credible long-term decarbonization pathway.

Source: IBA Fuel Demand Forecasting, ICAO SAF Production Capacity

IBA’s analysis shows that North America’s existing SAF capacity is slightly below the level required for 2030. Still, when factoring in facilities currently under construction, the region's capacity meets and slightly exceeds ICAO’s notional requirement. This reflects the impact of sustained policy support in the United States, including the federal SAF Grand Challenge, tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, and state-level incentives such as the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which together have helped unlock financing for a diverse range of SAF technologies.

In contrast, Europe, despite a comparatively strong project pipeline, remains below the capacity needed to hit ICAO’s 5% benchmark. While the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation sets progressively rising SAF blend levels from 2025, stringent sustainability criteria and high production costs continue to constrain supply development.

However, IBA notes that the European Commission’s newly announced Sustainable Transport Investment Plan aims to address this gap by mobilizing around €100 billion across aviation and shipping to accelerate the deployment of renewable and low-carbon fuels.

Regions including Latin America, Africa and the Middle East remain considerably behind the required levels, reflecting limited operational capacity and fewer advanced projects in the pipeline. IBA highlights that, for these regions to meet their long-term climate goals, rapid acceleration in both investment and enabling policy frameworks will be required across these markets.

Globally, SAF facilities that are operational or under construction currently equate to around 4.5% of global jet fuel supply in 2025, underscoring the significant scale-up required as the sector works toward ICAO’s 2030 milestone and the broader 2050 net-zero commitments.