IBA, the award-winning aviation intelligence and advisory company, hosted a webinar exploring the latest trends shaping the global freighter market, including Q3 2025 trade performance, conversion programme updates, and forward-looking insights into fleet and demand dynamics.

Drawing on IBA Insight data and analysis, the session revealed a resilient Q3 performance in global air cargo demand and capacity, even as policy uncertainty and moderating growth signal a shift in momentum for 2026.

Global Trade and Cargo Trends

According to IBA and WTO data, 2025 trade volumes have exceeded expectations, supported by import frontloading, nearshoring, and emerging market expansion. However, protectionist trade policies and tariff uncertainty are expected to weigh on performance into 2026, with trade volume growth forecast at just 0.5%.

Global cargo tonne kilometres (CTKs) increased by 3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and by 10% compared with pre-pandemic levels. The Asia-Pacific region saw the strongest growth, with freighter flight capacity up 33% year-on-year, aided by unrestricted access to Russian airspace, while North America contracted by 1%.

Freighter Fleet and Conversion Programs

IBA data shows that freighter flight activity rose 2.3% year-on-year across Q1–Q3 2025, led by double-digit growth in Europe and the Middle East. Despite this, the narrowbody conversion market remains oversupplied as recent conversion activity outpaces demand, while the widebody segment continues to perform more positively.

“Feedstock availability remains a key constraint on passenger-to-freighter conversion activity,” said Mike Yeomans at IBA. “We are seeing a period of stabilisation after the conversion surge of the pandemic years.”

Major widebody programmes – including the Mammoth 777-200LRMF, due to enter service at the end of 2025, and the 777-300ERMF, expected in 2026, alongside the KMC and IAI 777 conversion initiatives – highlight continued investment in fleet renewal and diversification.

Market Values and Long-Term Outlook

While short-term freight yields are easing, IBA forecasts a positive long-term outlook, driven by continued e-commerce demand, structural supply-chain shifts, and the replacement of ageing freighter fleets.