Heat, drought and storms have shrunk the wheat harvest in France, the European Union’s top exporter, further straining global supplies.

The country’s soft-wheat output will drop about 7% to 32.9 million tons this year, coming in below the five-year average, the agriculture ministry said Tuesday in its first forecast for the season. One of France’s driest and warmest springs on record hurt yields during a crucial development period.

That’s threatening to reduce the surplus grain available to ship abroad that many importers may need to turn to. Russia’s invasion has hampered harvests and exports from the breadbasket nation of Ukraine, tightening world supplies. While benchmark wheat futures have slid from a record set in March, they remain historically high.

EU wheat exports are expected to surge in the wake of the war, as buyers seek alternatives to Ukrainian supplies. The bloc projects soft-wheat shipments in the season that began this month to rise 27% to 38 million tons, curtailing the region’s stockpiles. 

May temperatures were the highest ever for the month in France and rainfall was extremely low, according to Meteo France. The country is now being gripped by another heatwave and while that could accelerate wheat harvesting, it risks hurting yields for later-planted crops like corn.

The US government is also due to update its global supply and demand estimates later on Tuesday. Wheat futures in Chicago and Paris declined as traders awaited the report.