The European Union may need to rely on sanctions to tackle rising imports of Russian liquefied natural gas in order to meet its ban on all fossil-fuel shipments from Moscow by 2027, according to a leading think tank. 

An outright embargo on flows from Russia’s Yamal LNG plant has so far been politically unpalatable in Brussels, but the EU has several paths to curb imports including using its new mechanism for coordinating joint purchases of the fuel, analysts at Brussels-based Bruegel said in a report. Other options include soft sanctions that discourage new purchases but don’t break existing supply contracts, or even doing nothing.

LNG has become a hurdle in the bloc’s efforts to wean itself off Russian energy, with Belgium, Spain and France receiving record volumes of the fuel in 2022 and deliveries holding strong this year. Unlike coal and oil, the EU has yet to apply any sanctions on gas. Kadri Simson, the bloc’s energy commissioner, has instead called for companies to not renew expiring contracts for the fuel.

Bruegel says the EU could adapt its newly created Energy Platform to handle limited Russian LNG supplies. It would do this by sanctioning imports, forcing the termination of long-term contracts and allowing the EU to offer to buy the LNG at a lower-than-market price via the platform, the analysts wrote.

Implementing such a move would also likely require unanimity among member states, some that may not wish to stop the imports. Bruegel estimates that Spain and Portugal would be hardest hit by such an embargo, which have the highest share of Russian LNG in their total gas supply.

In addition, “there is no guarantee that Russia would wish to engage with such a strategy, and Russia might prefer to refuse any LNG exports to the EU,” Bruegel said. 

Even so, the embargo and the offer to purchase Russian LNG would only partially risk tightening the global market. And the EU could manage without that source of supply, the analysts wrote. 

“The EU has a toxic addiction to Russian LNG, which must be promptly treated,” said Simone Tagliapietra, co-author of the report. “The good news is that, with the necessary preparations, the EU can well live without it.”

In March, EU energy ministers endorsed a proposal that would allow member governments to temporarily prevent Russian exporters from booking the facilities needed for the shipments. The approach also calls for a price cap on Russian LNG cargoes that use the EU or Group of Seven countries for trans-shipment, insurance or shipping services. The position still needs to be negotiated with the bloc’s parliament.