Eni SpA expects Egypt to resume liquefied natural gas exports once domestic demand declines and frees up volumes for shipment, even if supply from Israel remains reduced.

Egypt depends on pipeline-gas imports from its neighbor to complement production from own fields, but deliveries were partially halted earlier this month when Israel shut its massive Tamar field after the Hamas attacks. That deterred plans for Egypt to resume LNG exports in October, after a hot summer raised domestic fuel needs and paused deliveries abroad.

“Now consumption in the country is decreasing substantially due to the normal seasonal effect,” Cristian Signoretto, deputy chief operating officer of natural resources at Eni, said in an earnings call Friday. “So we will see exports resuming once this effect will be notable.”

Eni holds stakes in the giant Zohr gas field in Egypt and in one of its two LNG plants, Damietta. The field is currently producing at a rate of 2.1 to 2.2 billion cubic feet per day, Signoretto said, a slightly lower range than in July.

The escalating conflict in the east Mediterranean region has sparked concerns over the ability of Egypt to supply LNG to global markets just as the winter starts in the northern hemisphere. Egypt has exported only two LNG cargoes this month, both from the Idku LNG plant, ship-tracking data show. The nation met about 4% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2022 and about 2% so far this year.

Two other LNG vessels that were scheduled to arrive for loading in Egypt this month changed course. Energy Aspects consultants revised down export forecasts for the super-chilled fuel from the North African nation. 

“We caution there might be further downside risk to our Egyptian export forecasts,” Energy Aspects said in a note this week. “We expect Egypt to load three to four cargoes per month in October and November on reduced flows from Israel.”