As expected, Brent crude oil prices continued their recent downward trend last week, fluctuating between $77 and $81 per barrel, before the sell-off over the weekend and on Monday.
Despite market fears of a wider conflict following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, global oil supplies remain unaffected by Middle East tensions for now.
The market has instead refocused on demand uncertainty.

Weak manufacturing activity and lower oil imports by China, along with similar trends across other major economies, revived concerns over economic activity and oil demand growth.
The official US job numbers on 2 August showed weaker-than-expected growth in July and a rising unemployment rate, triggering a mass market slump over the weekend and into Monday.
The economic slowdown continues to contribute to the bearish outlook for oil markets.

Recent escalations in the Middle East, including the assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, have heightened fears of a broader regional conflict.
The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and threats from Iran suggest potential for significant escalation.

These events seem to have disrupted ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, complicating mediation efforts and worsening the humanitarian crisis.
The Biden administration faces criticism for its handling of the situation and the need for urgent diplomatic engagement is clear.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro won a third term with 51% of the vote, despite earlier polls favoring rival Edmundo Gonzalez.

The opposition rejects the results, and global powers, including the US, UK and the EU question the election’s legitimacy.

Rystad Energy forecasts limited growth in Venezuelan oil production due to PDVSA's debt and lack of investment, with potential disruptions if US licenses are revoked.
The outcome could deepen Venezuela’s ties with Russia, Iran and China, and isolate it further in Latin America if the results are internationally deemed unfair.

China’s manufacturing sector declined for the third straight month in July, with the PMI reading dropping slightly to 49.4.

This reflects ongoing economic weakness despite numerous pro-growth measures initiated by the government.

Non-manufacturing PMI also declined, but remained above 50, indicating growth in services and construction.

The steady stream of weak data may prompt increased stimulus efforts, focusing on state-led investment to achieve the 5% GDP growth target for the year.

Still, the market remains disappointed by the insufficient stimulus and lack of actionable measures following the country’s Third Plenary Session.

European gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3% in the April-June quarter, while the US economy outperformed expectations with 0.7% growth last week.
Germany's economy contracted by 0.1%, highlighting a growth gap between the US and Europe.

US growth is driven by strong private consumption and government investment, whereas European growth is hindered by high savings rates, reduced government spending and structural issues.
Additionally, Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July, complicating the European Central Bank's efforts to meet its 2% target.
Core inflation remained stable, though services inflation declined slightly.

This may prompt the ECB to be more cautious with further rate cuts, despite recent easing.

US crude stockpiles continued to decline, dropping by 3.4 million barrels this week due to strong export demand, which has provided a temporary support to oil prices.
However, the strengthening US dollar has somewhat curtailed the price increase by making oil more costly for holders of other currencies.

In an online meeting on 1 August, leading OPEC+ ministers decided to uphold their current oil output policy, including the gradual reversal of some production cuts starting in October.
They stressed that this plan could be adjusted or halted if needed.

This week, Rystad Energy released an updated oil demand outlook, which – despite the stronger-than-expected reported data in April – has declined to 1.03 million bpd year on year for 2024.
This revision reflects concerns about the economic recovery in Europe and China.

Achieving the targeted GDP growth rate of 5% in China is essential for meeting projected demand over the next two quarters.
Although the manufacturing PMI remains below 50, it shows signs of stabilization.

Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI is declining.

Reversing this downward trend in the non-manufacturing sector will be crucial for supporting overall demand growth.

Road transport is expected to resume growth, fueled by economic stimulus measures and infrastructure investments.

Petrochemical feedstock demand should increase in the latter half of the year, driven by new refining capacity in China and strong consumer spending.

Additionally, the maritime sector is likely to grow due to rising consumer spending in Europe and China, along with shipping inefficiencies caused by Red Sea disruptions and port congestion in Asia.

A strengthening in both manufacturing and services sectors is essential for economic recovery and sustained demand growth.

However, significant downside risks – such as economic weakness, geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures – justify the prevailing bearish sentiment.

Next week, the release of Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) for June is expected to show an improvement, rising from -4.2% in May to -3.3%.

This could provide some positive news in light of recent higher-than-expected inflation and slower GDP growth.
In China, inflation data is also set to be released.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase to 0.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to slide further to -0.9%.

These figures will be closely watched as indicators of economic health and potential policy adjustments.

While prevailing sentiment is decisively bearish for now due to demand concerns, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and supply concerns from Venezuela – with Maduro extending his presidency – could influence market dynamics.

In the coming weeks, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts would help further stimulate the US economy, and China's government might implement more proactive economic support measures and stimulus.