Cotton sowing from the world’s largest exporter is poised for a rebound.

U.S. cotton plantings are expected to climb amid strong foreign demand, higher input costs for farmers and prolonged drought in Texas, the crop’s top growing state. The potential increase for the world’s largest cotton supplier comes just after cotton futures in New York touched a fresh decade high at the end of January. The fiber surged 44% last year, driven by projections for a second global deficit.

U.S. farmers are projected to sow 12 million acres for the season beginning Aug. 1, up about 7.3% from the previous year, according to the National Cotton Council’s planting-intentions survey released Sunday.

The biggest increase is expected among mid-south growers, who will boost planting by almost 15% from a year earlier, with Louisiana and Arkansas showing the biggest gain, according to the survey. In the Southwest, Texas will see an increase of 6.9% to 6.79 million acres, or 56% of the national total. 

Even with more acres being planted, production may not grow. Using the five-year average state-level yield per harvested acre, and assuming that 18.9% of acres will be left unharvested, that would generate 17.3 million bales, the council said. That compares with 17.62 million bales reaped in 2021-22. 

Worldwide, the council projects world 2022-23 production will increase to 122.6 million bales due to higher acreage. Global use is projected to increase to 125.9 million bales, which represents an all-time high for demand. With expanded consumption in key importing countries, world trade is projected to increase to 48.3 million bales.