Oil prices are falling again, rounding out a month of muted demand and overall bearish sentiment.

Here is Rystad Energy’s oil macro update from Global Market Analysis Director Claudio Galimberti:

“July has been a bad month for the oil bulls, and the downward momentum appears to gather pace as we move into August this week.

Weakening global demand growth, an unresolved economic outlook in China and still elevated global oil inventories are continuing to weigh on prices.

Falling from a high of nearly $90 a barrel in early July, prices fell below $80 on Monday for the first time since early June.”

Brent crude prices dropped below $80 per barrel on Monday thanks largely to muted demand amid an uncertain economic outlook for China.

A weekend missile attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights threatened to spike prices, but officials are still communicating their strong desire to resolve the conflict without engulfing the entire region in war.

Optimism that a ceasefire may come sooner rather than later is helping to mitigate supply disruption concerns.

But if negotiations are unsuccessful, a significant geopolitical risk premium may resurface, pushing prices much higher.

Recent economic data from the US exceeded expectations, with economic growth hitting 2.8% in the second quarter – the highest this year – due to robust consumer spending and business investment.

Even so, challenges such as high consumer prices and a cooling housing market continue to impact sentiment.

Crude stock draws are also expected to persist.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported declines in inventories: crude oil stocks fell by 3.7 million barrels, gasoline decreased by 5.6 million barrels and distillates dropped by 2.8 million barrels, all supporting oil prices.

Our current US demand growth projections are subdued, with an expected growth of 27,000 barrels per day (bpd), mainly driven by the petrochemicals industry and aviation.

With strong economic growth and increased consumer and business spending, the transportation and industrial sectors are likely to see higher oil demand.

More spending will support fuel use for travel, positively affecting aviation and vehicles demand, while business investment drives industrial oil needs and the trucking sector.

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Elsewhere in North America, wildfires in western Canada, particularly near Fort McMurray, are threatening crude oil production.

As of 24 July, 433 fires are burning in British Columbia and 176 in Alberta, with 25,000 people evacuated from Jasper, Alberta.

The Trans Mountain Pipeline remains operational but under heightened security.

Imperial Oil has reduced staff at its Kearl site, and Suncor has curtailed production at Firebag.

The full impact on Canada’s oil sands production will be soon assessed by Rystad Energy.

In Asia, the final communication from China's Third Plenum focused on long-term goals such as high-tech manufacturing, security and trade but offered limited immediate solutions for the real estate sector or weak consumer spending.

This, along with disappointing economic data and a modest interest rate cut, left markets unimpressed.

Even so, China's historical trend of better performance in the second half of the year adds some uncertainty to this outlook.

The Venezuelan presidential election results were announced today, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro winning reelection in a highly contested result.

The immediate impact on global oil markets is minimal, but the international community's reaction could have significant implications in the coming weeks and months.

Immediate reactions suggest widespread dubiety about the results from Latin American neighbors and Western nations.

This could push Venezuela to further align with Russia, China and Iran and weaken already strained political relations with the US.