Rico Luman, Senior Sector Economist, at Dutch bank ING specializing in transport, logistics and the automotive industry in a Q&A with American Journal of Transportation, expects the impacts from the US tariffs hasn’t yet been felt. But he expects over the coming months and beyond, the impacts of US tariffs and trade policies will begin to show.

The Wallenius Wilhelmsen Parsifal sails into the Port of Baltimore.

The impact of President Trump’s tariffs on exports of vehicles and parts from the EU and UK to the US, of 15% and 10% respectively this summer (2025), has yet to fully materialize.

In a Q&A with AJOT, Rico Luman, Senior Sector Economist, at Dutch bank ING, specializing in transport, logistics and the automotive industry, highlights what some of the latest data is showing. Luman also sheds some light on the strategies being devised by European OEMs to compensate for an expected decline in volumes in what is a lucrative activity, a challenging task to say the least, given that global market conditions continue to be far from ideal.

AJOT: How have EU/UK auto exports to the US trended over the past few months?

LUMAN: Corporate figures from OEMs show that exports to the US generally held firm in the third quarter (July-September) with the exception of Mercedes. However, the effects of the tariffs are still likely to follow as automakers have yet to pass on the ‘cost burden’, choosing rather to prioritize sales.

Global auto shipments from Germany, by far the largest exporter from the EU, accounting for over 3 million units annually, contracted in August and September (-3% year over year). But the impact of the tariffs hasn’t been massive yet (-1% in total exports to the US) since the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ earlier this year.

UK unit exports are reported to have recorded more of a drop-off, but the disruption caused by the cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover has clearly been a factor.

While on balance ex-Europe shipments are down, the US automobile market did display some strong momentum in anticipation of the tariffs and also the termination of EV subsidies by the end of September. The real impact will likely follow in the coming months and beyond.

AJOT: Have there been any agreements reached with the U.S. authorities for European OEMs to set up production plants in the US in return for tariff relief?

LUMAN: There has been talk of this kind of deal. It was mentioned by Volkswagen during their last earnings call but as far as I’m aware this has not led to anything concrete, at least at this stage.

AJOT: What strategies are European OEMs adopting in light of the US import tariffs?

LUMAN: European auto exports to China (the world’s biggest market) continue to slide, a major factor being that OEMs are well-represented in the ICE (internal combustion engine) segment whereas the market is quickly shifting towards EVs. So, the emphasis will probably focus on ramping up existing production facilities in the US. European automakers will no doubt also be looking to sell more vehicles to other countries and regions across the world – South America and the rest of Asia, being a couple of examples, while India may offer future opportunities too. But it’s hard to see this fully compensating for the loss of export volumes to the US and China in the short run.

Another strategic shift could see greater regionalization of production with Europe’s OEMs turning out more vehicles on the ‘home’ continent which would obviously have significant implications for the configuration of supply chains over time. Without doubt, automotive logistics providers currently find themselves in a re-adjustment phase as clients recalibrate their activities.

Chinese automaker BYD (the world’s largest EV maker and dubbed the Chinese Tesla) launching production in Europe next year is also a potentially major development for the European market.