The global banana trade got back on track in 2025 through increased demand from two interesting sources - Russia and China. But despite the worldwide uptick researchers say looking ahead and forecasting how this year plays out “remains difficult.”

The data came from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Banana Market Review Preliminary Results 2025, a highly recognized publication issued each year.

“On the import side, a surge in procurements from China and the Russian Federation, which grew at double-digit rates over the first nine months of the year, was the main driver of expansion. In the case of China, this was facilitated by a shortage in domestic production, while in the case of the Russian Federation, improvements in previously disrupted transport routes and in the trade relation with Ecuador enabled a recovery from the downturns in preceding years. Imports by key developed markets, meanwhile, registered mixed performances,” the FAO report states. “In the European Union, the largest importer of bananas, demand remained solid against shortages in domestic production in the Canary Islands and the French West Indies. Amid persistently high food prices, bananas in the European Union also continued to benefit from being among the cheapest fruits on retail shelves. In the United States of America, rising unit prices for bananas resulted in a noticeable contraction in demand, in particular for higher priced organic bananas. Average import unit values, as well as wholesale and retail prices in major destinations displayed rising trends over the first nine months of the year.”

Sabine Altendorf, an economist at the FAO who authored the report, said there have been pockets of banana import growth elsewhere.

“Over the past decade, there has been rising demand from some importers in the Middle East, notably from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, at some 200,000 tonnes to 300,000 tonnes each. Import demand from China has more than doubled over the past decade, to an estimated 1.8 million tonnes in 2025,” she said.

The report, which is finalized in June, discusses the effect of Fusarium Wilt or Tropical Race 4 on production: “Preliminary full-year estimates indicate that global export quantities will expand by approximately 6 percent from their 2024 level to some 20.8 million tonnes in 2025. However, developments remained highly divergent among trading countries, with some seeing fast growth and others affected by sharp contractions. Key factors shaping trade in the first nine months of 2025 were reported as substantially higher supplies from some key producing countries, importantly Colombia and the Philippines. Production shortages were caused by adverse weather conditions in several other supplying countries. Losses and additional costs were stemming from the spread of plant diseases, importantly TR4. Low profitability for producers amid high production costs and limited trickle down of price rises along the value chain...The spread of plant diseases, importantly the alarming presence of the Banana Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4 (TR4) disease in Peru and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, further continued to cause production losses as well as financial strain from the substantial costs associated with disease prevention.”

Price Increase Dampen US Growth

The FAO says price increases in the US dampened growth.

“Available data as reported indicate that the average import unit values for shipments arriving in the European Union and the United States of America witnessed respective year-on-year growth of around 4 percent and 8 percent over this period, while wholesale prices rose by some 7 percent in the United States of America. However, industry sources reported that producer margins in most origins remained under pressure, as average export unit values from most suppliers grew only minimally while costs for inputs such as labor continued to rise.”

“The outlook for the industry thereby remains difficult, with low and shrinking margins hindering producers’ ability to cope with high production costs and environmental threats. However, it is important to note that the data available at the time of writing were of preliminary nature only and may be subject to corrections once final data have been released.”

The FAO’s preliminary estimates indicate that global exports of bananas may experience an expansion of 6 percent in 2025. Total exports are thereby estimated to reach some 20.8 million tonnes.

“Similarly to the main trends in 2024, developments in the first nine months of 2025 showed strongly diverging trends among global banana exporting countries, with key suppliers from Central America affected by declines, and South American and Asian suppliers mostly seeing large increases, in several cases even at double digit rates.”

On the import side, the FAO reports while demand in developed markets showed only moderate growth, procurements from China and the Russian Federation displayed large increases over the first nine months of 2025.

“Growth in imports was additionally supported by higher availabilities of export supplies from key producing countries, especially from Ecuador and the Philippines. These higher availabilities particularly boosted the level of import quantities received over this period by China and the Russian Federation, which together account for some 17% of global imports. Available monthly trade data show that net imports by the European Union, the largest importer of bananas globally, grew by some 2 percent year-on-year over the first eight months of the year, pointing to a full year estimate of 5.5 million tonnes in 2025. Industry sources reported that, amid persistent economic pressures, demand in the European Union continued to benefit from bananas being among the cheapest fruits available.”

Trade data show that Chinese imports of bananas from Viet Nam, the Philippines, Ecuador and Cambodia – the largest suppliers of bananas to China in declining order of magnitude – all rose at double-digit rates over the first nine months of 2025.

The FAO trade partner data also indicates that net imports by the Russian Federation recovered to nearly their pre-war levels over the first eight months of 2025, on the back of restored transport routes and strengthened diplomatic relations with Ecuador, the main supplier of bananas to the Russian Federation. Over the full year, imports by the Russian Federation are thereby expected to rise by 18%, to 1.4 million tonnes in 2025. However, the FAO reports, it is important to note that at the time of writing, direct monthly import data from the Russian Federation could only be obtained up to February 2025, rendering a precise assessment of recent developments difficult.

The Russian Federation imports bananas almost exclusively from Ecuador via previously agreed contracts, which are settled in US dollars. Available data from Ecuador showed a 25% year-on-year expansion in shipments to the Russian Federation over the period January to September 2025.

The FAO says the banana industry has been characterized by strong downstream pressure on margins. This has made it very difficult for producers to raise prices in response to surging production costs. Slim margins were already an important concern to producers before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the significantly higher production costs since 2020/2021 have amplified the situation.

Tom Stenzel, executive director of the Banana Association of North America (BANA), a trade association representing importers and marketers including Chiquita, Dole Food Co., Fresh Del Monte and Fyffes North America, said small increases at retail help fund a stronger banana industry through better research and production techniques. He said bananas remain a bargain.

“Bananas continue to be one of the lowest-cost produce items in North America. Retailers have traditionally used the banana category as low-cost attraction. But research shows that consumers don’t really know how much they pay for bananas, and far over-estimate the cost,” Stenzel said. “For the banana sector to reinvest in new varieties, technologies and sustainable production practices, small increases in retail prices could better enable the entire supply chain – growers through retail – to deliver the high-quality produce consumers want.”