In an interview with the AJOT, Henri Le Gouis, Executive Vice President, Global Freight Forwarding, at French logistics group, Geodis, looks back on how air cargo markets performed last year and considers what 2026 may bring to a continuing backdrop of global trade tensions and geopolitical upheaval.
He also highlights some of the latest developments and emerging trends that are shaping the sector.
“A year of resilient, moderate growth” is how Le Gouis describes 2025 for global air cargo.
Volumes increased year-on-year, supported by e-commerce, high-tech and industrial flows. Capacity continued to adjust dynamically across regions, and while some lanes saw pressure, the overall market remained balanced, he explained.
In terms of pricing, rates were broadly stable across the year, with a lower seasonality and stayed above pre-Covid levels.
From Geodis’ perspective specifically, last year was characterized by “very uneven demand depending on the trade lane and the vertical.
“We saw strong activity in time-critical, high-value and specialized segments, alongside significant volatility in e-commerce flows. We do not disclose global tonnage or yield figures but our priority throughout the year was on securing capacity, maintaining service reliability and helping customers navigate a very dynamic market environment.”
The Year Ahead
Turning to 2026, Le Gouis noted that the year had started on a relatively soft note but the first signs of recovery in volumes became apparent from Week 3 (of January) onwards.
“With Chinese New Year falling later than usual this year, we expect demand to build progressively in the coming weeks as shippers move closer to the holiday period. Despite the complex geopolitical environment, air cargo volumes are expected to hold up well and continue to grow.
“Demand has proven resilient as China and other manufacturing hubs diversify their trading partners, and new industries such as cloud computing and data centers are generating significant high-value, time-sensitive shipments.”
Capacity growth will remain a key feature of the market, with continued fleet expansion and additional belly capacity coming back. “That said, carriers have become increasingly agile in adjusting networks and redeploying aircraft across regions, which should help avoid major structural imbalances.” In this context, Geodis is expecting “a broadly balanced market” in 2026. While additional capacity could put some pressure on yields on specific lanes, overall rate levels are likely to remain relatively stable, supported by structurally strong demand and disciplined capacity management, Le Gouis observed.
“Of course, what we cannot foresee is the impact of geopolitical events.”
AI: the New ‘Golden Egg’?
Since the pandemic, cross-border e-commerce has arguably been air cargo’s ‘golden egg’ - a seemingly constant source of buoyant demand, soaking up capacity. Can the rapidly advancing AI revolution have a similar transformative impact on the sector?
“We do believe that AI and data center investments will become a meaningful growth driver for air cargo, although not in exactly the same way as e-commerce, Le Gouis replied.
“E-commerce generated massive, continuous volumes. AI-related projects will drive high-value, time-sensitive shipments of servers, semiconductors and critical components, which are well suited to air freight, especially during deployment and upgrade phases.
“However, a portion of the infrastructure is heavy and less time-critical and will continue to move by ocean. So, it is a strong opportunity for air cargo, but more selective and project-driven than the e-commerce boom.”
As for other air cargo verticals that are likely to prosper in 2026 and beyond, Le Gouis highlights semiconductors, high-tech, luxury and pharma/healthcare as the most promising.
“Semiconductors and advanced electronics will continue to benefit from AI, electrification and the reconfiguration of global supply chains. Pharma and healthcare remains structurally strong due to ageing populations, innovation pipelines and the growing importance of temperature-controlled, compliant logistics.”
At Geodis, pharma is “a clear strategic priority”, as illustrated in the opening of a healthcare center of excellence in Chicago and another one in Manchester (UK). “This underlines our ambition to further strengthen our capabilities in the vertical, invest in expertise, quality processes and compliance, and support customers with end-to-end, specialized solutions.”
The group is also seeing continued strength in aerospace, defense and industrial AOG (Aircraft on Ground) type flows, where speed and reliability are critical.
Modal Shift?
As for certain verticals shifting from air to ocean freight as a result of slacker capacity in the latter mode, accompanied by a decline rates, Le Gouis reckons any such switch is limited in scope.
“When ocean capacity is abundant and rates are low, we typically see non-urgent retail, lifestyle goods, and some standard industrial products migrate back to sea. However, pharma, critical components, high-value electronics, aerospace and AOG shipments are much less sensitive to ocean rates and will continue to rely on air. So, any modal shift would mainly affect price-driven, non-time-critical segments. High-value goods and spare parts will keep on flying.”
SE Asia–North America Lane Strongest
As for specific trade lanes, Le Gouis pointed to Southeast Asia–North America and in particular, Vietnam-US as the strongest for air cargo demand at present — reflecting manufacturing shifts (away from China) and dynamic e-commerce growth. More broadly, other Asia Pacific–North America and Asia–Middle East trade lanes are also very buoyant. “By contrast, China–US volumes have weakened year-on-year and Europe–Asia is relatively soft, with demand lagging behind rapid capacity growth. South America–US flows have also softened, with volumes increasingly redirected to Europe.”
Reconfiguration of e-Commerce Flows
As for the impact of the end of de minimis in the U.S. for low-value parcels and the response to such regulatory changes by Chinese e-commerce platforms, Le Gouis highlights that there has “clearly been a reconfiguration of e-commerce flows. Some volumes that previously moved directly into North America have been redirected to other regions, including Europe.
“For Geodis, this has meant adapting capacity, customs processes and distribution solutions to support new routing strategies. The main challenge has been managing volatility and the speed at which platforms change their logistics models.
The European Union is ending its de minimis rule from July 2026, adding a €3 fee to low-value e-commerce parcels, a move likely to reshape e-commerce flows rather than cause a structural drop in total air cargo volumes, according to Le Gouis. “Experience on the Transpacific shows that when e-commerce flows decline, part of the volume is replaced by general air freight rather than disappearing. In 2025, reduced China–US e-commerce was partly offset by a strong recovery in general cargo, keeping overall demand resilient.
“Similarly in Europe, some low-value e-commerce volumes may decline or shift to bulk imports and regional warehousing, but a significant share is likely to re-enter the system as general cargo. Overall, we expect a change in the mix of flows more than a material decline in total volumes.”
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