U.S. meat exporters, who export $20B per year, are facing major losses as China retaliates against the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, according to Joe Schuele, Communications Director, U. S. Meat Export Federation.

China

Schuele addressed the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AGTC) Annual Meeting in Tacoma, Washington, on June 17th, where he stated: “Exports equate to between $400-450 per head for every steer and heifer slaughtered. And if you take China out of the picture, you're putting about $150 at risk if China is not actively buying.”

He went on to explain that pork exports to China face a 57% tariff and beef exports face a 32% tariff. Meanwhile, beef exports from Australia enter China duty-free. The situation could get worse because U.S. beef exporters’ registrations have not been allowed by the Chinese government, potentially locking them out of the Chinese market. Schuele said, “Good news in that China is the only major buyer to retaliate at this point. But the bad news in that it is a major hit.”

Canada

Another market hit has been Canada, where retaliatory action to new tariffs has caused a loss of sausage sales: “The one retaliatory measure besides China is Canada. Canada has retaliated against some specific lines of products. One of those is sausages. There's a 25% tariff on sausages going into Canada right now. And people might say, well, how big a deal can that be? Well, it's a $270M market per year. Canadians in Canada are more than self-sufficient in red meat production, but it turns out Canadians really like American sausages.”

Mexico could represent another market loss

Another possible market loss could be exports to Mexico: “As far as the landmines that are still out there …at the very top of the list, and there's not a close second, is Mexico. Mexico has been very restrained. President Scheinbaum (of Mexico) has drawn a lot of praise for how calmly she's handled this whole situation. And I would add I think it's been masterful, but I don't know how much longer that can hold out because Mexico has largely skated on the reciprocal tariff side …They are getting hit on the steel and aluminum tariffs. And there's also a 21% tariff on tomatoes that is set to go into effect in July if we don't get a resolution to that.”

The result could be a tariff on U.S. pork exports to Mexico:

“I think that between the metal tariffs and the tariffs on tomatoes, pork is definitely in the crosshairs. And if Mexico retaliates against US pork, the effect will be very substantial. We've lived through this before, about seven years ago, in response to the first Trump administration's steel and aluminum tariffs. Mexico had a 20% tariff in place for almost a year, about 11 months. And that costs the US pork industry (impacting) well over $1 billion. The impact will be even worse this time because it's a much more competitive market than it was seven years ago. Brazil did not have access to Mexico at that time. They have access now to beef and pork. They are actively exporting to date. They haven't cut into our business very much at all. But if we're paying a 20% or 25% tariff to export to Mexico and they (Brazil) are paying zero, then that is a whole different ball game.”